عبدالمطلب عبداله رهیافت انقلاب اسلامی 2980-9118 19 73 2026 03 18 Global Decarbonization Policy and Iran’s Position in the Emerging Trade Order: the Reproduction of Inequality in International Trade سیاست کربن‌زدایی جهانی و جایگاه ایران در نظم نوین تجاری؛ بازتولید نابرابری در تجارت بین‌الملل 147 171 243609 FA ندا سعیدی دانشجوی دکتری حقوق بین الملل، دانشگاه تهران، پردیس البرز، تهران، ایران نادر میرزاده کوهشاهی دانشیار گروه حقوق عمومی دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران سید باقر میرعباسی استاد گروه حقوق بین الملل، دانشکده حقوق و علوم سیاسی دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 08 06 In recent years, global decarbonization policy has evolved from an environmental initiative into a regulatory framework shaping international trade. Through instruments such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, production standards, and carbon pricing systems, climate policies now directly influence market access, competitiveness, and global value chains. This study examines how this institutional transformation contributes to the reproduction of inequality in international trade and how Iran is positioned within the emerging low-carbon trade order. The main hypothesis argues that due to asymmetric institutional, technological, and data-related capacities among countries, decarbonization does not necessarily reduce existing inequalities but may instead intensify them, placing Iran in a structurally marginalized position. Using a qualitative methodology based on document analysis, legal-institutional examination, and secondary international data, the findings indicate that Iran’s energy-intensive economic structure, lack of binding climate commitments, and institutional constraints significantly limit its adaptive capacity. Consequently, Iran’s future trajectories are shaped more by structural limitations than by voluntary policy choices. Introduction Global climate governance has undergone a profound transformation in recent decades. What initially emerged as a set of voluntary environmental commitments has gradually developed into a complex regulatory regime with far-reaching economic implications. Decarbonization policies are no longer confined to domestic energy or environmental sectors; instead, they increasingly shape international trade rules, industrial strategies, and market access conditions. Instruments such as carbon pricing mechanisms, emission trading systems, sustainability standards, and carbon border measures have integrated climate objectives into the architecture of global trade. As a result, climate policy has become a key factor in determining competitiveness and participation in global value chains. While this transformation is often presented as a necessary response to climate change, its distributive consequences remain highly uneven. Countries with advanced technological capabilities, strong institutions, and regulatory influence are better positioned to adapt and benefit from this transition. In contrast, energy-dependent and institutionally constrained economies face disproportionate adjustment costs. Iran represents a critical case in this context, as it combines high carbon intensity, limited access to rule-making processes, and restricted institutional capacity. This study addresses the following central question: How does global decarbonization contribute to the reproduction of inequality in international trade, and how is Iran positioned within this emerging order? Materials and Methods This research adopts a qualitative and interdisciplinary methodological framework combining political economy, international law, and institutional analysis. First, a systematic document analysis was conducted, including international treaties, policy reports, regulatory frameworks, and institutional guidelines related to climate governance and trade. Key sources include documents from the European Union, the World Trade Organization, the OECD, the UNFCCC, and international energy agencies. Second, a legal-institutional analysis was employed to examine how climate-related trade instruments are embedded within existing trade regimes. Particular attention was paid to mechanisms such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, environmental exceptions in WTO law, and technical barriers to trade. Third, secondary quantitative data from internationally recognized databases, such as Our World in Data, WITS, and UN Comtrade, were used to contextualize Iran’s trade structure, emission profile, and market dependence. Finally, scenario analysis was applied to explore possible future trajectories for Iran under different institutional and policy conditions. This approach allowed the study to assess structural constraints and strategic options without relying on speculative forecasting. Discussion The findings reveal that global decarbonization operates as a form of regulatory power that restructures international competition. Rather than functioning solely as an environmental instrument, climate policy increasingly serves as a mechanism for market governance and industrial positioning. Advanced economies have integrated climate objectives into broader strategies of industrial modernization and strategic autonomy. Through standard-setting, technological leadership, and regulatory diffusion, they externalize their domestic policy priorities onto global markets. This process reinforces their competitive advantage and limits the policy space of less-developed economies.For Iran, these dynamics create multiple layers of vulnerability. Its economy remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels, energy-intensive industries, and carbon-intensive exports. At the same time, Iran lacks binding commitments under the Paris Agreement and faces constraints in data reporting, regulatory alignment, and institutional coordination. These structural conditions restrict Iran’s ability to comply with emerging standards and to challenge potentially discriminatory measures through legal channels. As a result, instruments such as CBAM function not only as climate tools but also as de facto trade barriers. The scenario analysis indicates that Iran’s future position will largely depend on structural reforms rather than short-term policy adjustments. Passive adaptation leads to deeper marginalization, while limited technical compliance only delays structural exclusion. Meaningful repositioning requires coordinated industrial, trade, and climate strategies, which remain institutionally challenging. Conclusion This study demonstrates that global decarbonization has become a central component of the contemporary trade order. Far from being neutral or universally beneficial, climate-related trade regulations reflect and reinforce existing power asymmetries. The Iranian case illustrates how structural constraints, institutional limitations, and asymmetric rule-making capacities contribute to the reproduction of inequality. Decarbonization, in this context, functions as both an environmental and a political-economic process. Understanding this dual character is essential for designing effective national responses and for developing more equitable global governance mechanisms. Without addressing institutional disparities, the transition to a low-carbon economy risks deepening global trade inequalities rather than mitigating them. سیاست کربن‌زدایی جهانی در سال‌های اخیر از یک پروژه زیست‌محیطی به یک قاعده تنظیم‌گر در تجارت بین‌الملل تبدیل شده است؛ قاعده‌ای که از طریق ابزارهایی مانند سازوکار تعدیل مرزی کربن، استانداردهای تولید و پیوند با نظام‌های قیمت گذاری کربن، به‌طور مستقیم بر رقابت، دسترسی به بازار و زنجیره‌های ارزش اثر می‌گذارد. مسئله اصلی این پژوهش آن است که این تحول نهادی چگونه به بازتولید نابرابری در تجارت بین‌الملل می‌انجامد و جایگاه ایران در نظم نوین تجاری کربن‌زدا چگونه صورت‌بندی می‌شود. فرضیه تحقیق بر این مبنا استوار است که کربن‌زدایی، به‌دلیل نامتقارن بودن ظرفیت‌های نهادی، فناورانه و داده‌ای کشورها، نه‌تنها شکاف‌های موجود را کاهش نمی‌دهد، بلکه می‌تواند آنها را تشدید کند و ایران را در موقعیتی حاشیه‌ای قرار دهد. روش پژوهش کیفی و مبتنی بر تحلیل اسنادی، تحلیل حقوقی–نهادی قواعد تجارت و اقلیم، و استفاده از داده‌های ثانویه معتبر بین‌المللی است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که ترکیب ساختار انرژی‌محور اقتصاد ایران، فقدان تعهد الزام‌آور اقلیمی و محدودیت‌های نهادی، ظرفیت تطبیق ایران با قواعد تجارت سبز را کاهش داده و سناریوهای آینده را بیش از آنکه تابع انتخاب‌های داوطلبانه باشند، به محدودیت‌های ساختاری وابسته کرده است.

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