عبدالمطلب عبداله رهیافت انقلاب اسلامی 2980-9118 20 74 2026 05 22 Iran's Energy Diplomacy and the India-Pakistan Rivalry: Assessing the Peacemaking Potential of the Peace Pipeline دیپلماسی انرژی ایران و رقابت هند–پاکستان: ارزیابی ظرفیت‌ های صلح‌ سازی خط لوله صلح 191 214 247016 FA مهرزاد دالوند گروه علوم سیاسی، واحد شهرضا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرضا، ایران محمدعلی شهریاری استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، واحد بوشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، بوشهر، ایران (نویسنده مسئول) محمدرضا اقارب پرست گروه علوم سیاسی، واحد شهرضا، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شهرضا، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 06 This study examines the role of Iran’s energy resources in shaping patterns of cooperation and potential conflict reduction between Pakistan and India through the framework of economic interdependence. The central question asks how Iranian energy can function as a stabilizing factor in relations between the two rival states. The article argues that the Iran–Pakistan–India Peace Pipeline represents a strategic infrastructure capable of generating long-term interdependence by linking the economic and energy security needs of both South Asian countries to Iran’s supply capacity. Through a qualitative, document-based method, the research analyzes existing policy documents, regional energy data, and scholarly literature. The findings show that despite political tensions, sanctions, and external pressures, the Peace Pipeline carries the potential to foster sustained economic linkages, elevate Iran’s regional position, and provide incentives for dialogue and de-escalation between India and Pakistan. Within the logic of economic interdependence, the project would increase the costs of conflict and enhance the benefits of cooperation, thereby contributing to a more stable regional environment. Introduction Energy has emerged as one of the most decisive variables shaping regional politics, strategic alliances, and security architectures in the twenty-first century. Countries with abundant energy resources increasingly translate these assets into diplomatic leverage, while energy-dependent states seek stable and long-term supply routes to sustain industrial growth, economic development, and domestic stability. Within this context, Iran occupies a pivotal position due to its vast oil and gas reserves, its geographical location between the Persian Gulf and Central Asia, and its potential to serve as a major corridor for east–west energy flows. For South Asia, particularly Pakistan and India, access to affordable and reliable energy has become a structural requirement for economic expansion. The Iran–Pakistan–India Peace Pipeline, conceptualized in the early 2000s, epitomizes an ambitious attempt to convert shared energy needs into a platform for cooperation among states with historically contentious relations. The theoretical premise guiding this study is the liberal notion of economic interdependence: the idea that deepening economic linkages, particularly in vital sectors such as energy, can reduce incentives for conflict, increase the costs of hostility, and provide a structural basis for long-term stability. Materials and Methods This study relies on qualitative analysis and a document-based research strategy. Primary sources include official energy reports, regional policy documents, diplomatic statements, feasibility assessments of the Peace Pipeline project, and existing governmental and intergovernmental publications. Secondary sources comprise scholarly works on energy diplomacy, economic interdependence theory, and Iran–South Asia relations. Data were analyzed through thematic categorization, focusing on four core dimensions: (1) Iran’s energy capacity and strategy; (2) Pakistan’s and India’s energy demands; (3) the geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Peace Pipeline; and (4) the theoretical implications of economic interdependence for conflict reduction. This methodological approach allows for tracing patterns of political behavior, mapping shared interests, and evaluating how energy infrastructures may transform rivalry into cooperation. Discussion The theory of economic interdependence posits that when states share essential economic linkages—especially in strategic sectors like energy—they develop overlapping interests that make conflict increasingly costly and cooperation increasingly rational. In the case of Iran, Pakistan, and India, this dynamic is particularly relevant. Pakistan faces chronic energy shortages that undermine industrial capacity, domestic stability, and economic growth. India, despite being a rapidly expanding economy, remains heavily reliant on energy imports, especially natural gas. Both states therefore stand to benefit from a stable and long-term supply channel that Iran is uniquely capable of providing. The Peace Pipeline project embodies the theoretical model in which economic interdependence creates a structural environment conducive to peace. As a physical infrastructure requiring decades of investment, joint financing, and continuous technical cooperation, it would “lock” the participants into sustained interaction. Any political or military escalation between India and Pakistan would directly threaten their energy security, thereby raising the cost of conflict. The project thus exemplifies the shift from a security paradigm based on zero-sum rivalry to one based on mutual vulnerability and shared gain. For Iran, the pipeline represents not only an opportunity for economic profit but also a diplomatic instrument for enhancing regional influence. By positioning itself at the center of a trilateral energy network, Iran can counterbalance external pressures—such as sanctions or competing pipeline projects—and expand its geoeconomic role. The pipeline would strengthen Tehran’s bargaining power while reinforcing its strategic relevance in South Asian energy politics. Despite these advantages, the project has faced significant challenges. U.S. sanctions, geopolitical competition, the emergence of alternative projects such as the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) pipeline, and persistent mistrust between India and Pakistan have repeatedly stalled progress. However, the theoretical logic of interdependence suggests that long-term structural incentives remain strong: energy insecurity in South Asia, demographic pressures, and industrial expansion are accelerating demand at a rate that makes regional cooperation increasingly rational, regardless of political frictions. Even if the project has been paused, its underlying logic remains valid. Results The findings demonstrate that the Peace Pipeline possesses substantial potential to function as a stabilizing mechanism in South Asia. First, it reinforces shared economic interests between India and Pakistan by linking their energy security to a common source. Second, it elevates Iran’s strategic position as a reliable supplier and regional connector. Third, it transforms the Iran–Pakistan–India triangle into a space where energy flows could incentivize diplomatic engagement, reduce the likelihood of confrontation, and encourage incremental confidence-building. The results confirm the central proposition of the study: infrastructure-based energy interdependence increases the costs of conflict and enhances the incentives for cooperation. The Peace Pipeline therefore represents more than a commercial project; it is an embryonic model of how energy diplomacy can be operationalized as a tool for regional peacebuilding, particularly in regions marked by historical hostility and geopolitical fragmentation. دیپلماسی انرژی امروز به یکی از ابزارهای کلیدی در روابط منطقه‌ای و بین‌المللی تبدیل شده است، زیرا افزایش نیاز کشورها به منابع انرژی، وابستگی متقابل اقتصادی را به عاملی تعیین‌کننده در شکل‌دهی امنیت و صلح بدل می‌کند. ایران با داشتن ذخایر گسترده انرژی، در موقعیتی قرار دارد که می‌تواند برای پاکستان و هند، که در بستری از رقابت و تنش مزمن قرار دارند، نقشی میانجی‌گرانه ایفا کند. خط لوله صلح، که از سال 2002 مطرح شده، نمونه بارز این ظرفیت است. پرسش اصلی پژوهش این است که انرژی ایران چگونه می‌تواند در کاهش تنش و تقویت صلح میان دو کشور نقش‌آفرینی کند. فرضیه تحقیق بیان می‌کند که تکمیل و عملیاتی‌شدن خط لوله صلح، به‌عنوان مهم‌ترین پروژه انتقال گاز منطقه، می‌تواند دو کشور را به همکاری، اعتمادسازی و گفت‌وگو تشویق کند. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در صورت پیگیری یک دیپلماسی انرژی هوشمندانه، صادرات گاز ایران قادر است فراتر از منافع اقتصادی، به ابزاری برای میانجی‌گری و تسهیل مذاکرات صلح میان پاکستان و هند تبدیل شود. روش پژوهش مبتنی بر گردآوری کتابخانه‌ای منابع و تحلیل توصیفی–تحلیلی داده‌ها است.

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