The Abraham Accord, as a historic treaty in the Middle East, primarily focuses on normalizing relations between the Zionist regime and Arab states such as the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, thereby having far-reaching implications for Iran’s national security. This study seeks to answer the question: What consequences will the Abraham Accord have for Iran’s national security? Utilizing Stephen Walt’s defensive realism framework, this research analyzes various dimensions of the accord. The hypothesis suggests that the Abraham Accord poses new threats to Iran’s national security through Israel’s increasing proximity to Iran’s borders, the militarization of Arab states, and the disruption of the regional balance of power. The study employs an analytical-descriptive approach to assess the economic, military, and political consequences of this accord for Iran. The findings indicate that the Abraham Accord has directly contributed to weakening sustainable security arrangements in the Middle East, pressuring Iran’s nuclear program, and introducing new economic and military threats. Simultaneously, the agreement provides opportunities for Iran to enhance diplomacy and forge regional alliances. Overall, the Abraham Accord presents both serious challenges and opportunities for Iran’s regional strategic positioning.
Introduction
The Abraham Accord, recognized as a major shift in Middle Eastern international relations, has garnered global attention. Signed in September 2020 between Israel and several Arab nations, including the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco, this treaty has been widely acknowledged as a turning point in regional and global politics. The normalization of relations between these countries and Israel, following decades of opposition and Arab isolation of Israel, has fundamentally altered foreign policy strategies and regional security dynamics. This accord can be analyzed from multiple perspectives. First, its political and diplomatic dimension addresses the transformation of Arab-Israeli relations, paving the way for significant regional and international developments. The changes occurred after nearly seven decades of Israel’s establishment, amid complex crises in the Arab world, including internal conflicts, proxy wars, and economic struggles. Second, the economic aspect of the Abraham Accord is crucial. Facing various economic challenges, Arab states view this agreement as an opportunity to strengthen trade and economic ties with Israel while accessing advanced technology. This collaboration can promote infrastructure development, energy expansion, and innovation in these nations. Another important dimension of the accord is its military and security implications. Security cooperation between the signatories and Israel enhances their defensive capabilities, particularly in counterterrorism efforts, intelligence sharing, and addressing shared threats. This raises concerns regarding shifts in the Middle East’s balance of power and the potential formation of new security alliances.
The social and cultural aspects of the Abraham Accord are also significant. This agreement may reshape public perceptions of Israel in Arab societies. Given the historically tense Arab-Israeli relations, normalization with Israel could face cultural and social resistance, particularly in Arab nations where national and religious identities play pivotal roles in domestic politics. Ultimately, the Abraham Accord, as a geopolitical agreement, indirectly affects regional security and stability. While some nations benefit from economic and security cooperation, others experience increased tensions. For countries still committed to their historical positions on Israel, this treaty may escalate political conflicts. Given the above, this study seeks to address the key question: What impact will the Abraham Accord have on Iran’s national security?
Theoretical Framework
Realist theories have long dominated the study of international relations, with the Balance of Power theory serving as a foundational concept. However, events such as the collapse of the Soviet Union and the unipolar dominance of the U.S. led scholars to question its applicability. As a result, Stephen Walt’s Defensive Realism and Threat Balance Theory emerged as a more precise explanatory model.
Walt argues that nations do not balance merely against power but against perceived threats, defined by factors such as military capability, geographic proximity, and aggressive intentions. In the case of the Middle East, the realist perspective helps explain why regional states align against what they perceive as Iran’s expansionist policies.
Applying Walt’s theory to the Abraham Accord, the agreement can be seen as a mechanism through which Arab states and Israel aim to balance against the perceived Iranian threat. The accord facilitates strategic alliances and military cooperation between Israel and Gulf Arab states, thereby increasing regional tensions.
Findings

Economic Consequences

Economic factors were central to the Abraham Accord’s formation. The agreement has significantly expanded trade and investment between Israel and Arab states, particularly the UAE and Bahrain. In 2021 alone, UAE-Israel trade surpassed $1 billion, with projections of reaching $6.5 billion by 2025. Moreover, UAE announced a $10 billion investment fund for Israeli ventures in sectors like energy, technology, healthcare, and agriculture.
From Iran’s perspective, these economic collaborations pose a threat, as they:
-Reduce Iran’s economic leverage in the Gulf region.
-Challenge Iran’s role as a trade hub, especially via UAE.
-Strengthen Israel’s economic foothold in the Persian Gulf, reducing Iran’s strategic influence.

Breaking the Taboo of Arab-Israeli Relations

The UAE was the first Gulf nation to formalize diplomatic relations with Israel, breaking a long-standing Arab taboo. Even Saudi Arabia, while not officially joining the accord, has indirectly acknowledged Israel’s legitimacy. The normalization trend may encourage other Arab nations, such as Oman and Kuwait, to follow suit, further isolating Iran diplomatically.

Geopolitical and Security Implications

The Abraham Accord has disrupted the geopolitical order in the Middle East by:
-Bringing Israel closer to Iran’s borders through security cooperation with Persian Gulf states.
-Strengthening military ties between Israel and Arab nations, especially in intelligence and missile defense systems.
-Enabling Israel’s military presence in the Persian Gulf, increasing regional surveillance and intelligence operations.

Strengthening the Arab-Israeli Military Alliance

The accord has enhanced Arab-Israeli security collaboration, focusing on countering Iran. Joint military exercises, arms deals, and intelligence sharing have positioned Israel as a key security partner for Gulf Arab states. The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has also integrated Israel into its regional operations, facilitating deeper coordination with Arab militaries.

Iran’s Strategic Challenges and Opportunities

While the Abraham Accord introduces significant threats, it also presents Iran with certain opportunities, including:
-Deepening alliances with anti-Zionist actors, such as Hezbollah, Syria, and Iraqi militias.
-Increasing pressure on Arab nations through grassroots opposition to normalization.
-Strengthening Iran’s diplomatic outreach to non-signatory states like Qatar and Turkey.
Conclusion
The emergence of the Abraham Accord has transformed Middle Eastern alliances, challenging Iran’s regional influence. Israel has successfully leveraged the agreement to bolster its security ties and economic partnerships, while Arab states have capitalized on Israeli technology and defense cooperation. The agreement’s implications for Iran include increased diplomatic isolation, economic competition, and military threats. However, Iran retains options to counterbalance these shifts, including fostering closer ties with resistance groups, expanding regional alliances, and leveraging public sentiment against normalization. The Abraham Accord, therefore, represents both a strategic challenge and a geopolitical reality that Iran must navigate carefully.